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  SINGAPORE, April 18 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures rose
on Tuesday after the market's drop to a 10-day low in the
previous session triggered a bout of bargain-basement buying. 
    Meanwhile soybean prices remained under pressure from lower
U.S. crushing in March, although strong Chinese demand kept a
floor under the market.
    
    FUNDAMENTALS
    * Wheat lost almost 3 percent in the last two sessions
of declines as rains improved prospects for the hard red winter
wheat crop across the U.S. grain belt. But bargain hunters have
supported the market as funds cover short positions. 
    * For soybeans, a monthly report showed that U.S. processors
crushed fewer soybeans than expected during March.
    * The National Oilseed Processors Association said that its
members crushed 153.060 million bushels during March, up from
142.792 million bushels in February. But a year ago, the March
crush totalled 156.690 million bushels. 
    * Analysts had expected a March crush of 156.728 million
bushels, based on an average of estimates in a Reuters survey.
    * The soybean market is likely to be underpinned by strong
demand from China in the months ahead. China, the world's
largest soybean buyer, imported 6.33 million tonnes of the beans
in March, a record for the month.
    * Improving crushing margins provided additional support for
the market. Margins for processing imported soybeans in Shandong
JCI-SBMG-SHDNI have started improving after hitting
most-negative since August last week. 
    
    MARKET NEWS
    * Asian stocks pulled back in early trade on Tuesday, while
the dollar bounced back from a five-month low after the U.S.
Treasury Secretary's comments supported a stronger currency,
although escalating tensions over North Korea capped gains.

    
    DATA AHEAD (GMT)
1230  U.S.   Housing Starts         March 
1255  U.S.   Redbook weekly 
1315  U.S.   Industrial Production  March
    
 Grains prices at  0107 GMT
 Contract    Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg  MA 30   RSI
 CBOT wheat  422.00  1.00    +0.24%   -2.60%       431.25  40
 CBOT corn   367.25  0.75    +0.20%   -0.47%       364.17  55
 CBOT soy    952.25  -1.00   -0.10%   +0.47%       977.86  47
 CBOT rice   10.09   -$0.01  -0.10%   -0.88%       $9.90   55
 WTI crude   52.63   -$0.02  -0.04%   -0.90%       $50.15  64
 Currencies                                                
 Euro/dlr    $1.064  $0.003  +0.30%   +0.27%               
 USD/AUD     0.7574  0.000   +0.03%   +0.09%               
 Most active contracts
 Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per
 hundredweight
 RSI 14, exponential
 
 (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

 

Europe is likely to end the wheat season with the smallest stockpiles in 13 years.

Inventories of wheat held in the European Union will probably plunge 37 percent to 10.1 million metric tons at the end of June, according to Tallage SAS, publisher of the Strategie Grains report. The combination of a poor harvest, strong consumption and higher-than-expected exports is draining stockpiles, which will probably stay low next season, the researcher said.

“We see a cocktail of factors that will be bullish for wheat this season and in 2017-18,” Andree Defois, president of Moret sur Loing, France-based Tallage, said by phone. “The fact that the EU situation will be in tight balance and stocks around the world are expected to decrease, especially by main exporting countries, could impact prices.”

Europe’s output is set to rebound after poor harvests in France and Germany, the bloc’s top producers. Wheat futures traded in Paris are down 1.9 percent this year at 164.75 euros a ton following four annual declines.

“Next season, the stocks will continue to remain tight because of the increase in internal demand and exports will offset a rise in production," Defois said.

Export Estimates

Tallage also boosted estimates for EU wheat exports for this season by 300,000 tons to 23.5 million tons. Demand for European grain is increasing after Turkey put restrictions on Russian wheat. Still, exports are down 8.4 million tons from the previous year.

The EU’s total grains production is poised to rise 3 percent to 305.2 million tons in the season that starts July, rebounding from a drop this season, according to Tallage estimates.

Soft-wheat production will rise 6 percent to 143.8 million tons next season. Durum-wheat output is expected to fall 10 percent to 8.9 million tons.

Tallage kept most estimates for EU crop production unchanged from a month ago.

A relatively dry winter in most of Europe has raised concerns about water stress affecting crops in certain areas, Tallage said. If dry conditions in parts the continent are prolonged, early corn growth could be hampered.

“The situation is normal as of now for all crops and there is good yield potential,” Benoit Fayaud, an analyst at Tallage, said by phone. “But if we don’t get enough rains by the end of April, it could become a problem, especially for wheat and barley,”

Countries including France, Belgium, Hungary and Bulgaria have registered below-average rainfall and Spain, the fourth-biggest producer in the region, is suffering from a rain shortage.

EU's Biggest Grain Producers

“The biggest problem could be a change in Spain’s production where there is already a problem of water stress,” Fayaud said. “Spain is an important importer and the lower its production, the more it will import.”

Other 2017-18 highlights:

  • EU corn-output estimate cut by 150,000 tons to 60.4 million tons, citing smaller acreage in Bulgaria, France and Spain.
  • EU barley estimate little changed at 61.3 million tons.
IA Dept. of Ag-USDA Market News Interior Iowa Daily Grain Prices

Closing cash grain bids offered to producers as of 1:30 p.m.
Dollars per bushel, delivered to Interior Iowa Country Elevators.


US 2 Yellow Corn Prices were mostly 1 cent lower for a state average of 3.15.

US 1 Yellow Soybean Prices were generally 14 to 15 cents lower for a state average of 8.95.

       Iowa Regions         #2 Yellow Corn          #1 Yellow Soybeans
                           Range       Avg        Range          Avg
       Northwest        3.06 – 3.24   3.13       8.81 – 8.89    8.86
       North Central    3.06 – 3.16   3.10       8.81 – 8.96    8.89
       Northeast        3.08 – 3.32   3.20       8.96 – 9.22    9.06
       Southwest        3.11 – 3.15   3.13       8.93 – 8.98    8.91
       South Central    3.07 – 3.25   3.12       8.91 – 9.00    8.93
       Southeast        3.15 – 3.42   3.26       9.00 – 9.30    9.18


Corn basis to STATE AVERAGE PRICE for the CBOT MAY contract is -.41
Soybean basis to STATE AVERAGE PRICE for the CBOT MAY contract is -.81

This report was prepared by the Marketing Bureau, Iowa Department of 
Agriculture and Land Stewardship. 
CO/NE/WY Elevator Afternoon Grain Bids

   Cash grain bids to farmers delivered to country elevators for Corn,
Wheat and Soybeans per bushel; and Sorghum, Millet, and Sunflowers 
per cwt. as of 3:00 pm. Mar 24, 2017.

US 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat Ordinary Protein: mostly steady.

                                                      Current    New Crop

Northcentral Colorado                          range 2.90-3.13
  Greeley                                                 2.90
  Bennett/Roggen/Byers                                    3.13

Northeast Colorado                             range 2.78-3.14
  Fleming/Haxtun/Holyoke/Amherst/
     Julesburg/Paoli/Peetz                           2.85-3.14
  Yuma/Wray/Brush/Akron/Otis/Anton                   2.78-2.88

Eastcentral Colorado                           range 2.88-3.18
  Cheyenne Wells                                          3.18
  Limon/Seibert/Burlington/Genoa/Hugo/Arriba/ 
     Flagler/Bethune/Stratton                        2.88-2.93


Southeast Colorado                             range 2.88-3.18
  Lamar/Holly/Vilas/Campo/Wiley/Springfield

Southwest NE and Southeast WY                  range 2.78-3.13
  Venango/Chappell/Big Springs/Brule                 2.80-3.13
  Kimball/Pine Bluffs/Sidney/Brownson/Potter         2.78-2.95


US 2 Yellow Corn: mostly 1 lower.

Northcentral Colorado                          range 3.31-3.56
  Greeley/Eaton                                      3.48-3.56
  Roggen/Byers                                            3.31

Northeast Colorado                             range 2.93-3.20
  Fleming/Haxtun/Holyoke/Amherst/  
     Julesburg/Paoli/Peetz                           3.01-3.11
  Yuma/Wray/Brush/Otis/Anton                         2.93-3.20

Eastcentral Colorado                           range 2.86-3.04
  Cheyenne Wells                                          3.04
  Limon/Seibert/Burlington/Genoa/Hugo/Arriba/ 
     Flagler/Bethune/Stratton                        2.86-2.96

Southeast Colorado                             range 2.86-3.11 
  Lamar/Holly/Vilas/Campo/Wiley/Springfield

Southwest NE and Southeast WY                  range 2.99-3.11
  Venango/Chappell/Big Springs/Brule/                3.01-3.06
     Kimball/Pine Bluffs/Sidney/Potter               2.99-3.11


US 2 Yellow Sorghum: unevenly steady.

Southeast Colorado                             range 4.04-4.48
  Lamar/Holly/Vilas/Campo/Wiley/Springfield


US 1 Yellow Soybeans: mostly 15 to 16 lower.

Southwest NE                                   range 8.40-8.46
  Venango/Chappell/Big Springs/Sidney/Potter


White Millet 

  Colorado/SW NE/SE WY                         range 5.25-6.25
                                               mostly     5.25

Sunflowers

  Colorado/SW NE/SE WY                        range 15.50-17.00
IA Dept. of Ag-USDA Market News Interior Iowa Daily Grain Prices

Closing cash grain bids offered to producers as of 1:30 p.m.
Dollars per bushel, delivered to Interior Iowa Country Elevators.


US 2 Yellow Corn Prices were mostly 3 cents lower for a state average of 3.16.

US 1 Yellow Soybean Prices were generally steady to 1 cent lower for a state average of 9.21.

       Iowa Regions         #2 Yellow Corn          #1 Yellow Soybeans
                           Range       Avg        Range          Avg
       Northwest        3.09 – 3.23   3.15       9.08 – 9.18    9.14
       North Central    3.09 – 3.21   3.13       9.07 – 9.22    9.16
       Northeast        3.13 – 3.33   3.23       9.20 – 9.47    9.31
       Southwest        3.03 – 3.14   3.10       9.06 – 9.27    9.16
       South Central    3.10 – 3.18   3.13       9.16 – 9.26    9.20
       Southeast        3.15 – 3.44   3.27       9.23 – 9.56    9.42


Corn basis to STATE AVERAGE PRICE for the CBOT MAY contract is -.45
Soybean basis to STATE AVERAGE PRICE for the CBOT MAY contract is -.85

This report was prepared by the Marketing Bureau, Iowa Department of 
Agriculture and Land Stewardship.

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